4
Galileo Noir
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 82
Listowel · Listowel Arms Hotel Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | BHA86 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Dundalk | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -30.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |