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5

Glyndwr

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 77

Listowel · Listowel Arms Hotel Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual 1m Dundalk winner (in cheekpieces) last term. In good form this summer until a below-par sixth of 10 in handicap at Laytown (7f) 12 days ago. Well worth another chance here with headgear fitted for first time this season.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA80 @ Dundalk 10/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 80 · 1m Std 127 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 80 par10/1080OR 80BHA79 @ Dundalk 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Std 136 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 79 parC8 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 84 · 1m Std 140 · beat its mark12/11/2025 · OR 84 par12/11C8OR 84BHA84 @ Leopardstown 10/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 84 · 1m2f Gd 138 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 84 parBHA82 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 82 · 7f Sft 142 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 82 par19/0682OR 82BHA82 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m Goo 142 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 82 parBHA81 @ Leopardstown 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 81 · 1m1f Goo 131 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 81 par23/0781OR 81BHA81 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 81 · 1m98y Yie 131 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 81 parBHA78 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 78 · 7f Std 166 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 78 par10/0978OR 78projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10LaytownBHA786th6th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA814th4th0
2026-07-23LeopardstownBHA813rd3rd0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA825th5th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA827th7th0
2026-05-10LeopardstownBHA8411th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1010/0523/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20258th11/142%42%-0.00
31/10/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
12/11/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
10/05/202611th50/10%0%0.00
19/06/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
09/07/20265th66/10%67%+0.67
23/07/20263rd28/10%71%+0.71
30/07/20264th16/116%75%+0.59
10/09/20266th14/126%44%+0.18