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3

Goal Exceeded

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 79

Listowel · Listowel Arms Hotel Handicap · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled her tally for the season in 12-runner handicap at Roscommon (7.4f, good to soft) 22 days ago by ½ length from Morehampton. Up 3 lb but not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA70 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 26 · OR 70 · 7f Yie 140 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 70 par16/1070OR 70BHA68 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 68 · 7f Hvy 128 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 68 parC5 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 67 · 7f Yie 127 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 67 par15/04C5OR 67BHA67 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 67 · 7f Sft 127 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 67 parBHA69 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 7f Sft 119 · below its mark19/05/2026 · OR 69 par19/0569OR 69BHA66 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 66 · 7f45y Goo 136 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 66 parBHA75 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 75 · 7f Yie 135 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 75 par28/0775OR 75BHA76 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 76 · 1m GF 127 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 76 parBHA76 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 76 · 7f94y Yie 133 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 76 par31/0876OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA761st1st0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA764th4th0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA754th4th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA661st1st0
2026-05-19CorkBHA693rd3rd0
2026-04-19CurraghBHA6710th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1019/0428/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength91%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20258th9/153%72%+0.19
02/11/20256th14/126%74%+0.47
15/04/20262nd11/271%93%+0.22
19/04/202610th10/382%44%-0.39
19/05/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13
18/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
28/07/20264th11/271%79%+0.08
09/08/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
31/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18