7
Morehampton
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 79
Listowel · Listowel Arms Hotel Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA79 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA77 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Limerick | BHA79 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA82 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | BHA84 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA88 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 11/10/2025 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 31% | -0.43 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 23/05/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 27/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 11/07/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |