4
Mergus Serrator
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 83
Listowel · Jet, Peggy & Eamonn O'Carroll Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA84 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Killarney | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Leopardstown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -15.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 76% | +0.03 |