IvyArcIvyArc
6

Possum

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 80

Listowel · Jet, Peggy & Eamonn O'Carroll Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y

#4

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Australia filly who ran to a similar level as last time when third of 17 in maiden (8/1) at Galway (1½m, soft) 14 days ago, slowly away. Opening mark looks on the stiff side but the combination of first-time cheekpieces and a 2f longer trip could trigger improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 1m4f Yie 1273/06C8C8 @ Roscommon 18/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 1m4f48y Goo 12918/08C8C8 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR - · 1m4f Sft 1298/09C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Galway?3rd3rd0
2026-08-18Roscommon?3rd3rd0
2026-06-03Curragh?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0618/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +32.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/06/20268th10/147%13%-0.35
18/08/20263rd28/10%85%+0.85
08/09/20263rd8/158%88%+0.30