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5

Vantage Code

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 83

Listowel · Jet, Peggy & Eamonn O'Carroll Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved a totally different proposition upped in trip when routing his opposition in a 1¾m handicap at Galway in July. Found life appreciably tougher from a 15 lb higher mark in the Melrose at York subsequently but back down in grade now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f Yie 13328/09C8C8 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m44y Goo 127C8 @ Galway 27/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f Sft 13327/10C8BHA74 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 74 · 1m Sft 133 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 74 parBHA72 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 72 · 1m2f109y Goo 130 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 72 par29/0572OR 72BHA68 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 68 · 1m2f63y Goo 128 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 68 parBHA69 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 69 · 1m4f84y Yie 120 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 69 par27/0769OR 69BHA69 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 69 · 1m6f14y Yie 128 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 69 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 84 · 1m5f188y Goo 114 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 84 par22/082OR 84projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York213th13th0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA691st1st0
2026-07-27GalwayBHA693rd3rd0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA682nd2nd0
2026-05-29Down RoyalBHA727th7th0
2026-04-19CurraghBHA7411th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0919/0427/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20256th40/10%29%+0.29
09/10/20256th40/10%50%+0.50
27/10/20257th66/10%45%+0.45
19/04/202611th18/15%17%+0.11
29/05/20267th14/126%45%+0.19
30/06/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
27/07/20263rd10/382%86%+0.03
31/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
22/08/202613th25/10%25%+0.25