5
Jolie Costardiere
7yo Mare · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Esclargades - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#2
Rank
Odds
1/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Hyeres | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hyeres | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-25 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 7 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Marseille-borely | 7 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Marseille-borely | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Marseille-borely | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 07/05/2025 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 16/12/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 16/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 62% | -0.02 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.03 |
| 12/08/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |