3
Jurdig Lesmelchen
7yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Esclargades - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 7 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 7 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Marseille-borely | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 7 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-21 | Divonne Les Bains | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2025 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 21/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 03/02/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |