3
Melodie D'houlbec
4yo Filly · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix De Rive Neuve - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Marseille-borely | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hyeres | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-12 | Hyeres | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Hyeres | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Cavaillon | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 01/02/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 07/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |