5
Geronimo Fuego
10yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Quercus Ii - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Enghien | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Pornichet | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-18 | Toulouse | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-02 | Nantes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 64% | +0.09 |
| 25/01/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 25/05/2025 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 02/06/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 18/06/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 13/10/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 23% | -0.35 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |