4
Illustre Ferm
8yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Quercus Ii - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#2
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Marseille-borely | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Marseille-borely | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 93% | -0.01 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 92% | +0.02 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 16/01/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 12/02/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 54% | -0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |