Finding Candy
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 71
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 89% | -0.03 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 33% | -0.60 |