My Balboa
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-11-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 08/09/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 17/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 16/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 78% | -0.14 |