IvyArcIvyArc
2

Premier Cru

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 58

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 30/11/2024 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 59 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/11/2024 · OR 59 par30/11C6OR 59C7 @ Aqueduct 27/12/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 66 · 7f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/12/2024 · OR 66 parC9 @ Aqueduct 23/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark23/02/2025 · OR 60 par23/02C9OR 60C9 @ Aqueduct 21/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark21/03/2025 · OR 66 parC6 @ Mountaineer 25/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 66 · 1m Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2025 · OR 66 par25/06C6OR 66C5 @ Mountaineer 22/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 61 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 61 parC5 @ Mountaineer 05/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 57 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 57 par5/05C5OR 57C8 @ Mountaineer 23/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 51 · 1m 124 · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 51 parC8 @ Mountaineer 24/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 55 · 7f 124 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 55 par24/08C8OR 55projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Mountaineer?2nd2nd0
2026-06-23Mountaineer?8th8th0
2026-05-05Mountaineer?6th3rd+3
2026-04-22Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2025-06-25Mountaineer?1st-1th+2
2025-03-21Aqueduct?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1121/035/0524/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/11/20249th50/10%0%0.00
27/12/20245th50/10%56%+0.56
23/02/20253rd16/116%67%+0.51
21/03/20255th12/137%33%-0.04
25/06/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
22/04/20263rd12/137%33%-0.04
05/05/20266th16/116%17%+0.01
23/06/20268th10/147%22%-0.25
24/08/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57