11
Roaring Rapids
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 74
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 31/01/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |