IvyArcIvyArc
7

Vindicato

7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 61

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Penn National 18/08/2023 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 5f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/08/2023 · OR 60 par18/08C7OR 60C7 @ Penn National 06/09/2023 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 5f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/09/2023 · OR 62 par6/09C7OR 62C8 @ Meadowlands 16/09/2023 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 73 · 5f Fm 121 · below its mark16/09/2023 · OR 73 par16/09C8OR 73C8 @ Penn National 27/12/2023 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 67 · 6f Slo 122 · below its mark27/12/2023 · OR 67 par27/12C8OR 67C8 @ Mountaineer 10/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 65 · 5f 124 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 65 par10/08C8OR 65C8 @ Mountaineer 13/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 57 · 5f 124 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 57 par13/09C8OR 57projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Mountaineer?9th9th0
2026-08-10Mountaineer?6th6th0
2023-12-27Penn National?5th5th0
2023-09-16Meadowlands?2nd2nd0
2023-09-06Penn National?4th3rd+1
2023-08-18Penn National?4th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/086/0916/0927/1210/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/08/20234th16/116%50%+0.34
06/09/20234th16/116%50%+0.34
16/09/20232nd5/174%86%+0.12
27/12/20235th8/158%0%-0.58
10/08/20266th25/10%0%0.00
13/09/20269th40/10%11%+0.11