1
Distinguished Gent
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 61
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 11th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 24/12/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 03/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 05/03/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |