7
El Guty
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Lone Star | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lone Star | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Lone Star | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +10.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |