Italian Symphony

6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 87

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲1

Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: -0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Colonial Downs	?	4th	6th	−2	3.6
2026-07-16	Colonial Downs	?	6th	8th	−2	1.6
2026-05-31	Laurel Park	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-05-16	Charles Town	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6
2026-04-25	Charles Town	?	4th	3rd	+1	6.6
2026-04-02	Oaklawn Park	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength47%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/12/2025	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53
19/02/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	75%	+0.14
13/03/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	88%	+0.14
02/04/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	67%	+0.40
25/04/2026	4th	9/2	76%	57%	-0.19
16/05/2026	5th	11/2	71%	43%	-0.28
31/05/2026	4th	10/1	47%	63%	+0.15
16/07/2026	6th	7/1	63%	44%	-0.19
29/08/2026	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32