4
Mo Hair Sam
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 18/05/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 06/07/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 28/03/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |