5
Standard Of Proof
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 97
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |