Busker

3yo Filly · 8-8

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

86%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-02	Mountaineer	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-17	Presque Isle Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-13	Presque Isle Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-27	Presque Isle Downs	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-03-22	Tampa Bay Downs	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-01-31	Tampa Bay Downs	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength32%

Delivery trend -12.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
31/01/2026	11th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
22/03/2026	1st	40/1	0%	100%	+1.00
27/05/2026	4th	8/1	58%	0%	-0.58
13/07/2026	4th	15/2	61%	50%	-0.11
17/08/2026	5th	9/2	76%	33%	-0.43
02/09/2026	2nd	4/5	96%	86%	-0.10