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2

Pigeon Cay

6yo Mare · 8-12

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength86%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Mountaineer 03/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 55 par3/09C9OR 55C9 @ Mountaineer 18/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 61 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 61 parC6 @ Mountaineer 06/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 64 · 5f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 64 par6/10C6OR 64C9 @ Mountaineer 15/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 61 · 1m 126 · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 61 parC6 @ Mountaineer 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 51 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 51 par5/05C6OR 51C6 @ Mountaineer 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASSC9 @ Mountaineer 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 1m70y Fas 12419/07C9C6 @ Mountaineer 02/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f 124 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Mountaineer 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m70y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS9/08C6projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Mountaineer?5th2nd+3
2026-08-02Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2026-07-19Mountaineer?2nd2nd0
2026-05-17Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2026-05-05Mountaineer?4th1st+3
2025-10-15Mountaineer?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0915/1019/079/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20255th12/137%56%+0.19
18/09/20254th9/276%67%-0.10
06/10/20254th25/10%40%+0.40
15/10/20252nd9/488%75%-0.13
05/05/20264th16/116%40%+0.24
17/05/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78
19/07/20262nd4/179%67%-0.12
02/08/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
09/08/20265th12/137%20%-0.17