6
Tiz Laws Hall
3yo Filly · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 9.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +34.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |