2
The Sinner Is You
10yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 10/09/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |