6
A P Sweetheart
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 73
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 19/06/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 26/10/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 22/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |