5
Celestial Speed
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 70
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-10-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-10-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +12.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 08/09/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |