4
Shez Untappable
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/06/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 21/07/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 18/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |