1
Xmas In Cairo
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 80
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength88%
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |