7
Half Birthday
7yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 84
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |