5
Queen Anna T
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 80
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |