4
Gideon
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 91% | -0.03 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |