Rachael's Wagon
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 03/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |