2
Golden Thread
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 93
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -12.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |