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4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 78
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |