4
Sister Sola
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 45
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength74%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 22/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |