1
Starlit Sky
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 75
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 86% | -0.11 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |