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2

Carron

4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 86

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y

#6

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time scorer in 2025 who raised his game further for George Boughey this year, resuming winning ways at Newcastle (1m) in March and back on the up when second at Yarmouth (1m) in June. Proved disappointing on debut for new yard at this course last month, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 23/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 79 · 1m1y Std 129 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 79 par23/094OR 793 @ Kempton 17/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m Sta 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 82 parC0 @ Meydan 09/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 1m1f110y Gd 1279/01C?C0 @ Meydan 06/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 1m 1334 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 82 · 1m5y Std 132 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 82 par6/034OR 822 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 82 · 1m Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 86 · 1m GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 86 par2/053OR 864 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 85 · 1m3y Sft 135 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 86 · 7f14y Std 139 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 86 par27/084OR 86projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Southwell411th11th0
2026-06-10Yarmouth42nd2nd0
2026-05-02Newmarket38th7th+1
2026-03-28Doncaster214th12th+2
2026-03-06Newcastle41st1st0
2026-02-06Meydan?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/096/022/0527/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
17/12/20257th6/168%45%-0.23
09/01/20263rd9/488%86%-0.02
06/02/20266th7/491%67%-0.24
06/03/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
28/03/202614th14/126%38%+0.12
02/05/20268th14/126%42%+0.15
10/06/20262nd13/266%90%+0.24
27/08/202611th22/10%0%0.00