4
Clouds Hill
4yo Colt · 9-11 · OR 82
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y
#10
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Windsor | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ascot | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Redcar | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Yarmouth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/12/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 25/05/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 11% | -0.70 |
| 25/06/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |