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5

Firefall

3yo Colt · 9-11 · OR 86

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y

#5

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quite useful form for the Fabre stable in France and may have needed the outing, back from 2 months off, when seventh of 9 on yard/handicap debut at Ripon (1m, soft) 22 days ago. Hood on first time. This run should reveal more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 10/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 12810/11C5C1 @ Deauville 07/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/04C11 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 27/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f97y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS27/0412 @ Chantilly 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS24/0622 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 88 · 1m Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 88 par31/082OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon27th5th+2
2026-06-24Chantilly22nd0th+2
2026-04-27Bordeaux Le Bouscat18th4th+3
2026-04-07Deauville?9th5th+3
2025-11-10Chantilly?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/117/0427/0424/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength50%

Delivery trend +10.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/11/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
07/04/20269th10/147%11%-0.36
27/04/20268th11/486%22%-0.63
24/06/20262nd9/153%83%+0.31
31/08/20267th22/10%25%+0.25