11
Illy's Roo
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 75
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 68% | +0.21 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 77% | -0.05 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |