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6

Politely

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 84

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won back-to-back races on all-weather in March and April for Martyn Meade but has proved somewhat disappointing on turf since. Bit to prove on first start for new connections here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 12/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f110y Goo 12812/0645 @ Lingfield 04/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f Goo 1284/0855 @ Lingfield 20/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m1y Std 12320/0353 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 80 · 1m142y Std 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 80 par17/043OR 802 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 86 · 1m Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 86 par9/052OR 864 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 85 · 1m Goo 135 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 85 par19/064OR 85projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Goodwood49th9th0
2026-05-09Ascot25th3rd+2
2026-04-17Wolverhampton31st0th+1
2026-03-20Lingfield51st2nd−1
2025-08-04Lingfield55th6th−1
2025-06-12Newbury49th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/064/0820/0317/049/0519/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength82%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20259th100/10%0%0.00
04/08/20255th40/10%50%+0.50
20/03/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
17/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
09/05/20265th17/255%50%-0.05
19/06/20269th25/10%11%+0.11