3
Shipbourne
3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 87
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y
#7
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Newbury | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -20.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 01/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 82% | -0.12 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/07/2026 | 13th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |