Talis Evolvere
6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 78
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y
#1
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Chepstow | 2 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.40 |
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 31/08/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |