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11

Assiri Heights

3yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 75

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#8

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden who built on return effort when second of 11 at Kempton (1m) 13 days ago, closing all way to line. Likely has more to offer now sent handicapping.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 23/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 12823/0744 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m13y Std 13016/0844 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m Sta 1339/094projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton42nd2nd0
2026-08-16Southwell46th6th0
2025-07-23Salisbury49th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0716/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +54.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20259th5/493%11%-0.82
16/08/20266th9/276%44%-0.32
09/09/20262nd7/163%90%+0.27