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Duke's Command

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 87

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3 times in 2025, with latest victory over 1¼m at Lingfield in December. Yet to really get going this year but is well handicapped again and shaped as if better for the run, back from 4 months off, when eighth at York recently.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newcastle 27/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 93 · 1m5y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 93 par27/113OR 932 @ Lingfield 15/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 92 · 1m2f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 92 par1 @ Lingfield 31/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 95 · 1m2f Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/12/2025 · OR 95 par31/121OR 952 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 95 · 1m2f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 95 par3 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 95 · 1m142y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 95 par20/033OR 952 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 94 · 1m2f42y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 93 · 1m2f17y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 93 par28/042OR 932 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 91 · 7f192y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 91 par3 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 89 · 1m2f56y GS 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 89 par6/093OR 89projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York38th7th+1
2026-05-14York214th12th+2
2026-04-28Epsom Downs25th3rd+2
2026-04-03Newcastle26th4th+2
2026-03-20Wolverhampton37th6th+1
2026-02-27Lingfield28th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1127/0228/046/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/20254th11/142%73%+0.31
15/12/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
31/12/20253rd12/137%50%+0.13
27/02/20268th9/276%30%-0.46
20/03/20267th8/158%45%-0.12
03/04/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
28/04/20265th10/147%20%-0.27
14/05/202614th33/10%24%+0.24
06/09/20268th11/142%50%+0.08