3
Hot And Cold
3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 85
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Sandown | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-18 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -14.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |