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8

Moving Shadow

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 82

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark in Leicester maiden on debut this time last year and ran to a similar level in both starts since, including when third of 4 in novice at Leicester (7f, good to firm) on belated return 55 days ago. May have more to offer on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Leicester 22/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS22/0934 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 7f Gd 13531/1044 @ Leicester 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 81 · 7f Goo 137 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 81 par29/074OR 81projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Leicester43rd3rd0
2025-10-31Newmarket47th7th0
2025-09-22Leicester31st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0931/1029/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -39.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
31/10/20257th9/276%57%-0.19
29/07/20263rd8/1597%33%-0.64