6
On The River
7yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 79
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y
#7
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Nottingham | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Pontefract | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ripon | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 93% | +0.35 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |